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Does age structure forecast economic growth?
hdl:20.500.12314/10038
版本: 1– 已发布: Fri Jun 03 10:02:33 CST 2016
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International Journal of Forecasting;Volume 23, Issue 4, October–December 2007, Pages 569–585 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207007000891
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标题Does age structure forecast economic growth?
课题全局IDhdl:20.500.12314/10038
作者David E. Bloom; David Canning; Günther Fink; Jocelyn E. Finlay
提交日期六月 03, 2016
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Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a “demographic dividend” that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model using a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980, and investigate whether the inclusion of age structure improves the model's forecasts for the period 1980 to 2000. We find that including the age structure improves the forecast, although there is evidence of parameter instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown in the second period. We use the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000 to 2020. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207007000891

关键字Economic growth; Demography; Forecast evaluation; Error decomposition
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"Does age structure forecast economic growth?", hdl:20.500.12314/10038